Good governance as antidote to rumours of coup

The marginal lessening of tension in the country over the past few weeks is a clear indication that the government is secure when it meets, reasonably, its mandate to secure the people and ensure their welfare.

Although the Bola Tinubu-led administration is yet to fully find its feet almost a year after its inauguration, there is no doubt that its little gains in stabilising the naira against foreign currencies, provision of palliatives particularly food, stemming the tide of terrorism and kidnapping, at least marginally, and providing a semblance of governance are all working to pale rumours of coups that were rife not too long ago.

The real lesson for the government, both at federal and state levels, is that the real enemy to their administrations is the absence of good governance, not rumours of some gun-totting, ambitious soldiers.

Amid rising tension of a coup plot the other day, the Defence Headquarters, for the umpteenth time, dismissed any intention of interfering with the democratic process in Nigeria. Pledging unwavering loyalty to the Constitution and President Bola Ahmed Tinubu, the Director of Defence Information (DDI), Brigadier General Tukur Gusau, stated that there is no plan by the armed forces to stage a coup against the government. The latest loyalty declaration is necessitated by an article published online claiming that the Guards Brigade had been put on high alert following unusual movements in the Federal Capital Territory, leading to suspicion of a coup plot in Nigeria. The publication also alleged amongst other things that the suspicion prompted an emergency meeting involving the President, the Chief of Staff to the President and Commander of the Guards Brigade.

However, Brigadier General Gusau debunked the allegation, which he described as a figment of the publisher’s imagination, in its entirety. According to him, “The Defence Headquarters wishes to categorically state that the allegation is totally false. For the avoidance of doubt, the Guards Brigade has been statutorily assigned the responsibility of protecting the seat of power (The Presidency) and by extension the Federal Capital Territory and its environs.

Hence, it is to be noted that the Presidential Guards Brigade has always been on high alert to effectively executive its assigned tasks … Therefore, the Defence Headquarters strongly condemns this unsubstantiated assertion, which is just a figment of the imagination of the publisher and enjoins members of the public to disregard it.”

Notably, the development came in the backdrop of military coups in West and Central Africa, which were exploited apparently by political mischief makers who bandied that some members of the Nigerian Armed Forces are nursing a similar idea. Notably too, each time such rumour springs up, not only will the military high command deny any coup thoughts against the constituted civilian authority, but also always “call on relevant security agencies to immediately take appropriate action against this unpatriotic action.” In truth, they have been consistent in proclaiming the “unalloyed commitment of members of the Armed Forces of Nigeria to the protection and sustenance of democracy in Nigeria.”

However, the fundamental question to answer is: whether there is a real threat of a possible military takeover of the present constitutionally elected government. In September 2023, the General Officer Commanding (GOC) 81 Division, Nigerian Army, Maj. Gen. Mohammed Usman, warned “disloyal soldiers” to quit the army and affirmed that military personnel must remain loyal to the President, Chief of Defence Staff, down to their Brigade Commanders. Earlier, the Chief of Army Staff, Lieutenant General Taoreed Lagbaja, had charged “all Nigerian Army personnel to be proud champions of our flourishing democracy and remain apolitical in discharging their constitutional duties”.

The concern of some Nigerians is predicated on the fact that most military takeovers in Africa were initiated by disgruntled junior military officers, who were later supported by a few senior officers. This argument is further strengthened by the fact that four of the recent coups in Africa were staged by close guards meant to protect the presidents in their various countries. Therefore, any misgiving within the armed forces should be timely de-escalated.

While the nation is presently deviled with multifaceted challenges arising mainly from bad governance by the political class, these issues can be resolved without the involvement of the military. Nigerian citizens owe the civic duty of loyalty to the country and must collectively ensure that this civilian dispensation is sustained.

Accordingly, it is unpatriotic and uncharitable for anyone to call for an unconstitutional change of government for any reason whatsoever. Nigeria’s various military experimentations have shown that members of the Armed Forces are better off if they stop scheming for political leadership, and rather concentrate on their professional calling of defending the territorial integrity of the country and the citizens against external and internal aggressors.

Even though the most appropriate form of government for Nigeria and indeed many African countries is still the subject of debate and controversy, the Nigerian military should adhere to the admonition of Brigadier General Gusau that: “The military is happy and better under democracy and will not get involved in any act to sabotage the hard-earned democracy in our country.” Echoing this position, Chief of Defence Staff (CDS), General Christopher Musa, declared that “Democracy remains what we stand for. We must do everything humanly possible to sustain democratic rule.”

However, the present administration should realise that the prevailing security challenges and economic hardship are giving room for coup speculation. Needless to say, Nigerians are displeased with the current state of affairs. The primary purpose of government is the security and welfare of the people, but sadly the Nigerian government at all levels scores low on both. Military intervention in politics is often associated with perceived electoral illegitimacy, economic crisis, and or stagnation of growth.

In a study of intervention in politics by the military in Latin America, Martin C. Needler, author of Mexican Politics and former Dean of the School of International Studies at the University of the Pacific in Stockton, California, suggested that governments were more likely to be overthrown by force when economic conditions deteriorated. “When conditions were improving, the military was unlikely to intervene in politics.”

Sadly, the factors that led to previous coups in the past are all too manifest in the country, with insecurity and recent protests nationwide over the food crisis. Consequently, it is expedient for the government to prioritise improving the living standard of the people. “In all, the emerging consensus points to good, empathetic governance and focused leadership as crucial factors to assure state stability.” If the government lives up to its responsibilities, the recurring calls for a military takeover will be nonexistent or inconsequential.